Systematic sensitivity analysis for mechanistic geochemical models using field data from crystalline rock (SANGUR)
Funded by:
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection (BMUV)
Funding code: 02E12112B
Project executing agency:
Karlsruher Institut for Technology KIT (PTKA)
Funding period:
02/2023 - 01/2026
Cooperation partner:
- HZDR, Institute of Resource Ecology (coordinator)
- TU Clausthal, Institute for Repository Research (TUC)
- ÚJV Řež (Subcontractors of the HZDR)
People:
Vinzenz Brendler (Project coordination, HZDR), Solveig Pospiech (HZDR), Alexandra Duckstein (HZDR), Elmar Plischke (HZDR), Mostafa Abdelhafiz (TUC), Filip Jankovsky (ÚJV), Milan Zuna (ÚJV)
Project description
A large number of complex factors play a role in the search for a suitable repository for radioactive materials, including in the field of geosciences. In order to find the best location, it is necessary to consider not only the conditions in the repository itself, but also in the surrounding host rock. In the event of radionuclides leaking from the repository into the host rock, the radionuclides are primarily transported by aqueous solutions that flow through weak zones in the rock. For the function of the host rock as a barrier between the repository and the surface, retention mechanisms such as the sorption of radionuclides on the mineral phase along pathways play an important role.
When modeling radionuclide retention, many different parameters that are subject to uncertainties must be taken into account. In addition, many of the properties of the host rock also vary greatly in spatial terms (heterogeneity):
- Properties of the host rock: mineral composition, permeability, porosity, opening width of pore spaces, ...
- Groundwater properties: concentration of radionuclides, pH value, concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and calcium, ...
- Thermodynamic sorption data of all reactants under consideration
The aim of the SANGUR project is to identify which model parameters are particularly important. It also aims to understand the uncertainties of the parameters and their interactions. Ideally, this will allow an improvement in the predictive quality of the safety case for a potential repository and more efficient parameter determination and modeling (reduction of the model).
- The focus of the work at the HZDR is on the geostatistical simulation of the mineralogical composition of the host rock in 2D. This allows the parameter uncertainties relating to the host rock to be quantified. These in turn are essential for subsequent sensitivity analyses of the geochemical simulation (e.g. to determine the distribution coefficients of the radionuclides between the mobile and stationary phases).
- An interactive toolbox for sensitivity analysis will be implemented by project partners at Clausthal University of Technology and further developed and optimized with regard to the scientific questions of the project.
- The cooperation with project partners of ÚJV Řež enables sorption experiments to verify the entire workflow as well as the access and exchange of data from various underground laboratories such as Bukov.
Conference contributions (presentations and posters):
- Pospiech, S., Bok, F., Abdelhafiz, M., Duckstein, A., Plischke, E., and Brendler, V.: Understanding Geological Key Factors for Radionuclide Retention: Insights from Sensitivity Analysis on Varied Crystalline Host Rock Compositions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3471.
- Duckstein, A., Pospiech, S., Tolosana-Delgado, R., and Brendler, V.: Radionuclide sorption in the far field: Geostatistical simulation of crystalline rock to assess uncertainties due to heterogeneities, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1916.
- Pospiech, S., Duckstein, A., Bok, F., Brendler, V.: A Workflow for Combining Geostatistics with Geochemistry: A Process to Select Features for designing spatial models for crystalline rock, NEA-CRC7 Meeting, NAGRA, Wettingen, Schweiz, 18th – 20th June 2024.
- Pospiech, S., Duckstein, A., Brendler, V.: Integrating Chemical Modelling and Geostatistics for Improved Radionuclide Retention Models in Crystalline Rock, GeoSaxonia 2024 - DGGV Annual Meeting 2024, Dresden, Germany, 23rd – 26th Sept 2024.