News of November 27, 2025
Do changing vegetation patterns reveal the risk of desertification?
Winning bid of the 2025 Open Project competition combines expertise from CASUS and the University of Göttingen
The proposal DRYFUN (Inferring desertification risk from vegetation patterns using functional network analysis) succeeded in this year’s Open Project call of the Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS). With this tender, the Görlitz-based institute of Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) aims to establish joint research projects with well-known national and international research institutions. DRYFUN was conceived by CASUS Young Investigator Dr. Ricardo Martínez-García and Prof. Viola Priesemann, Professor at the Faculty of Physics of Georg August University of Göttingen. Both scientists will jointly oversee the three-year project.
Shrubland in Australia
Source: Pexels/Josh Withers
“Dryland ecosystems can shift from healthy, productive landscapes to barren deserts – a process that’s difficult to reverse and threatens biodiversity and the livelihoods of more than 250 million people worldwide living in affected regions,” says Ricardo Martínez-García who leads the Dynamics of Complex Living Systems group at CASUS. These so-called regime shifts are hard to predict because the warning signs are subtle and – even with relevant ecosystem data available – are buried in noise. “With DRYFUN, we aim to tackle this problem by combining functional network analysis with Bayesian inference. While functional networks provide insights into how the system’s parts interact and reorganize as stress builds up, Bayesian inference provides the degree of confidence about an approaching regime shift,” adds Martínez-García.
Viola Priesemann, also a group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Göttingen, shares her outlook: “Using satellite data, modeling, and complex systems theory, we expect that the tools developed within DRYFUN will spot first signs of desertification earlier and with higher confidence than current methods.” The adopted approach draws on expertise in physics and ecology to merge models with real-world evidence. In the end, the research will help with anticipating and managing the functional collapse of drylands into deserts. Beyond that, it will also provide general insights into how complex living systems achieve and lose stability when subject to external pressures.
Through its Open Projects program, CASUS has so far established ties with, among others, the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm (Sweden), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory of the University of Delaware (USA), the European Organization for Nuclear Research CERN (Switzerland) and the University of Maryland (USA). Five open projects have been completed, and eight are currently ongoing. DRYFUN will start in early 2026 and run for three years. CASUS will cover the costs for a PhD student working in Görlitz. In addition to the regular conditions for doctoral students at the HZDR, the selected student will have access to additional travel funds to support recurring trips to Göttingen.
“The Open Project program will continue in 2026,” says Dr. Hossein Mirhosseini, Scientific Manager at CASUS and responsible for the program. “Applications may be submitted at any time. The next evaluation will take place in March 2026, considering all proposals submitted by the end of February.”
Additional information:
Dr. Ricardo Martínez-García | Young Investigator Group Leader
Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS) at HZDR
email: r.martinez-garcia@hzdr.de
Dr. Hossein Mirhosseini | Scientific Manager
Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS) at HZDR
email: h.mirhosseini@hzdr.de
Media contact:
Dr. Martin Laqua | Officer Communications, Press and Public Relations
Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS) at HZDR
Cell phone: +49 1512 807 6932 | email: m.laqua@hzdr.de
About the Center for Advanced Systems Understanding
CASUS was founded 2019 in Görlitz/Germany and pursues data-intensive interdisciplinary systems research in such diverse disciplines as earth systems research, systems biology or materials research. The goal of CASUS is to create digital images of complex systems of unprecedented fidelity to reality with innovative methods from mathematics, theoretical systems research, simulations as well as data and computer science to give answers to urgent societal questions. The founding partners of CASUS are the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig (UFZ), the Max Planck Institute of Molecular Cell Biology and Genetics in Dresden (MPI-CBG), the Technical University of Dresden (TUD) and the University of Wrocław (UWr). CASUS, managed as an institute of the HZDR, is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space (BMFTR) and the Saxon State Ministry for Science, Culture and Tourism (SMWK). www.casus.science
