Simulate what is measured: next steps towards predictive simulations

Simulations of laser matter interaction at extreme intensities that have predictive power are nowadays in reach when considering codes that make optimum use of high performance compute architectures. Nevertheless, this is mostly true for very specific settings where model parameters are very well known from experiment and the underlying plasma dynamics is governed by Maxwell’s equations solely. When including atomic effects, prepulse influences, radiation reaction and other physical phenomena things look different. Not only is it harder to evaluate the sensitivity of the simulation result on the variation of the various model parameters but numerical models are less well tested and their combination can lead to subtle side effects that influence the simulation outcome.
We propose to make optimum use of future compute hardware to compute statistical and systematic errors rather than just find the mots optimum set of parameters fitting an experiment. This requires to include experimental uncertainties which is a challenge to current state of the art techniques. Moreover, it demands better comparison to experiments as inclusion of simulating the diagnostic’s response becomes important.
We strongly advocate the use of open standards for finding interoperability between codes for comparison studies, building complete tool chains for simulating laser matter experiments from start to end.