Prognostic value of baseline [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography parameters MTV, TLG and asphericity in an international multicenter cohort of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients

Purpose

[18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) parameters have shown prognostic value in nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPC), mostly in monocenter studies. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic impact of standard and novel PET parameters in a multicenter cohort of patients.
Methods

The established PET parameters metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG) and maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax) as well as the novel parameter tumor asphericity (ASP) were evaluated in a retrospective multicenter cohort of 114 NPC patients with FDG-PET staging, treated with (chemo)radiation at 8 international institutions. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis with respect to overall survival (OS), event-free survival (EFS), distant metastases-free survival (FFDM), and locoregional control (LRC) was performed for clinical and PET parameters.
Results

When analyzing metric PET parameters, ASP showed a significant association with EFS (p = 0.035) and a trend for OS (p = 0.058). MTV was significantly associated with EFS (p = 0.026), OS (p = 0.008) and LRC (p = 0.012) and TLG with LRC (p = 0.019). TLG and MTV showed a very high correlation (Spearman’s rho = 0.95), therefore TLG was subesequently not further analysed. Optimal cutoff values for defining high and low risk groups were determined by maximization of the p-value in univariate Cox regression considering all possible cutoff values. Generation of stable cutoff values was feasible for MTV (p<0.001), ASP (p = 0.023) and combination of both (MTV+ASP = occurrence of one or both risk factors, p<0.001) for OS and for MTV regarding the endpoints OS (p<0.001) and LRC (p<0.001). In multivariable Cox (age >55 years + one binarized PET parameter), MTV >11.1ml (hazard ratio (HR): 3.57, p<0.001) and ASP > 14.4% (HR: 3.2, p = 0.031) remained prognostic for OS. MTV additionally remained prognostic for LRC (HR: 4.86 p<0.001) and EFS (HR: 2.51 p = 0.004). Bootstrapping analyses showed that a combination of high MTV and ASP improved prognostic value for OS compared to each single variable significantly (p = 0.005 and p = 0.04, respectively). When using the cohort from China (n = 57 patients) for establishment of prognostic parameters and all other patients for validation (n = 57 patients), MTV could be successfully validated as prognostic parameter regarding OS, EFS and LRC (all p-values <0.05 for both cohorts).
Conclusions

In this analysis, PET parameters were associated with outcome of NPC patients. MTV showed a robust association with OS, EFS and LRC. Our data suggest that combination of MTV and ASP may potentially further improve the risk stratification of NPC patients.