Schwabe, Gleissberg, Suess-de Vries: Towards a consistent model of planetary synchronization of solar cycles
Schwabe, Gleissberg, Suess-de Vries: Towards a consistent model of planetary synchronization of solar cycles
Stefani, F.; Giesecke, A.; Seilmayer, M.; Stepanov, R.; Weier, T.
Aiming at a consistent planetary synchronization model of both short-term and long-term solar cycles, we start with an analysis of Schove’s historical data of cycle maxima. Their deviations (residuals) from the average cycle duration of 11.07 years show a high degree of regularity, comprising a dominant 200 year period (Suess-de Vries cycle), and a few periods around 100 years (Gleissberg cycle). Encouraged by their robustness, we support previous forecasts of an upcoming grand minimum in the 21st century. To explain the long-term cycles, we enhance our tidally synchronized solar dynamo model by a modulation of the field storage capacity of the tachocline with the orbital angular momentum of the Sun, which is dominated by the 19.86-year periodicity of the Jupiter–Saturn synodes. This modulation of the 22.14-year Hale cycle leads to a 193-year beat period of dynamo activity which is indeed close to the Suess-de Vries cycle. For stronger dynamo modulation, the model produces additional peaks at typical Gleissberg frequencies, which seem to be explainable by the non-linearities of the basic beat process, leading to a bi-modality of the Schwabe cycle. However, a complementary role of beat periods between the Schwabe cycle and the Jupiter–Uranus/Neptune synodic cycles cannot be completely excluded.
Keywords: solar cycle
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Magnetohydrodynamics 56(2020)2-3, 269-280
DOI: 10.22364/mhd.56.2-3.18
Cited 12 times in Scopus -
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arXiv:1910.10383 [astro-ph.SR]: https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10383
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Permalink: https://www.hzdr.de/publications/Publ-32071