Global tellurium supply potential

The transition towards renewable energy generation requires increasing quantities of nonfuel mineral commodities, including tellurium (Te) used in cadmium-telluride based thin-film photovoltaics. While demand for Te may be poised to increase markedly, the potential to increase Te supply is not well-understood. In this analysis, we provide detailed by-country estimates of the quantity of Te contained in anode slimes generated by electrolytic copper (Cu) refining between 1986 and 2018, including uncertainties. We do this by combining all available data on facility-level Cu cathode production and Cu anode compositions. For 2018, the results of Monte Carlo simulations indicate a total of 1,930 t of Te was contained in anode slimes, with the 95% confidence interval ranging from 1,500 to 2,770 t. This quantity is nearly quadruple the reported Te production for the same year (~ 500 t), indicating a great potential to increase Te supplies. The results also indicate that China is not only the largest Te producer but also has the greatest potential to increase Te supplies. However, most of the Te produced by or potentially recoverable from Chinese refineries appears to come from Cu ores mined elsewhere. Translating the physical availability of Te into economic availability requires further research into the costs associated with Te recovery. Nevertheless, this study represents an important development in the assessment of Te supply potential and, further, presents a methodology that could be extended to other byproduct critical elements.